Who will be the next Head Coach of the Milwaukee
Leader sits at 32% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Steve Kerr / No new coach
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Tiago Splitter
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$926
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 27, 2026
177 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next Head Coach of
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Golden State?: Steve Kerr / No new coach
KXNEXTNBACOACH-GS26-SKER
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Portland Pro Basketball Team?: Tiago Splitter
KXNEXTNBACOACH-POR26-TSPL
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Chicago?: Jon Scheyer
KXNEXTNBACOACH-CHI26-JSCH
Who will be the next Head Coach of the New Orleans?: Darvin Ham
KXNEXTNBACOACH-NOP26-DHAM
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Chicago?: Tom Thibodeau
KXNEXTNBACOACH-CHI26-TTHI
Who will be the next Head Coach of the New Orleans?: Jamahl Mosley
KXNEXTNBACOACH-NOP26-JMOS
Who will be the next Head Coach of the New Orleans?: James Borrego
KXNEXTNBACOACH-NOP26-JBOR
Who will be the next Head Coach of the Portland Pro Basketball Team?: Sean Sweeney
KXNEXTNBACOACH-POR26-SSWE
Analysis
The market estimates a 15% probability that a specific candidate will become the Milwaukee Bucks' next head coach. This reflects relatively low odds compared to alternatives in the multi-outcome contract, suggesting the leading candidate faces meaningful competition from other contenders. The probability would move based on reporting about the team's coaching search timeline and candidate availability. The market would face significant pressure if the Bucks officially announce their search is underway or if key candidates publicly commit to other teams, either raising or lowering the leader's odds depending on what emerges. The main catalyst is any official team announcement regarding their coaching process or timeline.
- ›Current front-runner priced at 15% with runner-up at 13%, indicating a competitive field without a dominant favorite
- ›Milwaukee's current coaching situation and stated timeline for any replacement decision, if applicable
- ›Availability and interest level of top NBA coaching candidates, including whether leading contenders accept other positions
- ›Recent playoff performance or organizational decisions that might accelerate or delay a coaching change
- ›Public statements from Milwaukee ownership or front office about their coaching preferences or search status
What moved the line
- Apr 27James Borrego↓10pp28→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Steve Kerr / No new coach↑6pp21→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tiago Splitter↑6pp18→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Jon Scheyer↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Steve Kerr / No new coach↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.