Will the price of natural gas get below $1.60 per million BTU before January 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the price of natural gas get below $1.80 per million BTU before January 1, 2027
Analysis
The market is pricing a 97% probability that natural gas will trade below $1.60 per million BTU at some point before the end of 2026, down from recent levels near $2.75–$3.40. This reflects expectations of continued supply growth, moderating demand, and seasonal normalization over the next seven months. The main drivers are weather patterns (cooling demand typically falls in summer), production levels from U.S. shale basins, and global LNG export capacity. A major winter supply disruption, geopolitical event affecting exports, or sharply colder-than-normal forecasts could reduce this probability, while a warm summer or production surge would reinforce it. The next key data points include weekly inventory reports and forward-looking demand estimates through summer 2026.
- ›Natural gas prices have ranged $2.75–$3.40 in early May 2026; reaching $1.60 requires a 40–50% decline from current levels over seven months
- ›U.S. production trends and LNG export utilization directly affect supply; higher production or reduced export demand would push prices lower
- ›Summer cooling season (June–August) typically reduces heating demand, creating downward price pressure; this seasonal effect is already partially priced in
- ›Storage injection levels and inventory builds during lower-demand months will constrain winter supply risk, a key factor supporting the 97% probability
- ›Geopolitical disruptions to global LNG supply or unexpected cold-season demand spikes remain the primary tail risks that could prevent sub-$1.60 prices
What moved the line
- May 3$1.79 or below↑28pp22→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 2$1.79 or below↑20pp2→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 h ago.