SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (May 4, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Sports2 contractsKalshiclosed 4 d agoCloses May 16, 2026 · 8d

Will Cole Caufield record the most goals in the 1st Round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 2 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

17%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

17%

2 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$141

2 contracts

Closes

May 16, 2026

8 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 8% (15 days, 15 points)Aggregate: 8% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 2 contracts · 15d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 2 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Matt Boldy record the most goals in the 1st Round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs

1 contract$141

Cluster 2

Will Zach Hyman record the most goals in the 1st Round of the 2026 NHL Playoffs

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Cole Caufield finishes the 2026 NHL playoffs' first round with more goals than any other player. At 6%, it suggests low confidence in this outcome. Caufield would need to both play a significant role in his team's first-round series and outscore other top offensive performers during that span. Key factors affecting this probability include Caufield's playoff scoring pace relative to league-leading goal scorers, his team's first-round matchup and series length, the health and performance of other high-volume goal scorers entering the playoffs, and historical precedent for younger players dominating first-round goal totals. The resolution will depend entirely on actual playoff performance once the first round concludes, likely in late May or early June 2026.

  • Caufield's team seeding and opponent—easier matchups may extend series length and increase goal opportunities
  • Historical first-round goal-scoring leaders and whether Caufield typically ranks among top-10 playoff goal scorers in any playoff run
  • Injury status and roster composition of Caufield's team versus other playoff contenders with prolific scorers
  • Caufield's career playoff performance and goal-scoring rate compared to current elite playoff performers
  • Number of games played in first round—longer series provide more scoring opportunities, directly affecting total goal accumulation

Recently closed in sports

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Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 d ago.