NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Racing Louisville FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 11%, Polymarket at 32% — a 21pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
3 contracts
Polymarket
32%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
21pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6
15 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 11¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 21pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (11¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (32¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
2 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club” vs “Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9bdf90…2be9
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x32d4ab…3c4b
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-2.5)
0x15e436…84a3
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc91f8e…fc4a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Racing Club
0x788488…e536
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Draw (Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club)
0x286a72…52c4
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Botafogo FR
0xc2f328…09e8
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
0xd6abb8…2411
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd61678…cc29
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
0x50a3e5…ff1a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-1.5)
0xc988a4…7704
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5c8e41…b6f1
Cluster 2
Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner
What moved the line
- May 3Racing Louisville↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Gotham↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tie↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.