NJ/NY Gotham FC vs. Racing Louisville FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 10%, Polymarket at 38% — a 28pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
3 contracts
Polymarket
38%
16 contracts
Cross-venue gap
28pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$335
19 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 10¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 28pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (10¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (38¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets” vs “Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd61678…cc29
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc91f8e…fc4a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
0xd6abb8…2411
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5c8e41…b6f1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x32d4ab…3c4b
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
0x50a3e5…ff1a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-2.5)
0x15e436…84a3
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-1.5)
0xc988a4…7704
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9bdf90…2be9
Cluster 2
Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner
Cluster 3
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 6
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x2226aa…408f
Cluster 7
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↑3pp63→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Gotham↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tie↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Racing Louisville↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.