Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 10 in Apr 2026
Leader sits at 75% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 1
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
At least 2
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
29 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 1 in May 2026?: At least 1
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T1
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 2 in May 2026?: At least 2
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T2
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 3 in May 2026?: At least 3
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T3
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 10 in May 2026?: At least 10
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T10
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 5 in May 2026?: At least 5
KXNYTHEAD-26MAY-T5
What moved the line
- May 2At least 1↑6pp73→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 2At least 3↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 3At least 3↓3pp21→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.