Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
50%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
114 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by...?: June 12
0x38d3e0…8e7c
Analysis
This market assesses whether Olivia Rodrigo will release a new original album by a specified deadline. The 97% probability reflects strong confidence in a release occurring, while the presence of a 50% alternative outcome suggests some structural uncertainty in the market's design or timing parameters. The leading probability is driven primarily by Rodrigo's established release patterns and industry momentum—her previous albums have arrived within predictable windows, and the music industry typically expects major artists to maintain regular output. Factors that could lower this probability include extended creative hiatuses, unexpected personal circumstances, or if the deadline falls sooner than typical album cycles. The main resolution catalyst would be any official announcement from Rodrigo's camp regarding new music, or simply passage to the specified cutoff date without a release. Near-term uncertainty may also reflect different trader beliefs about whether announced albums count identically to surprise releases, or ambiguity around what qualifies as an "original" versus remix or compilation work.
- ›Rodrigo released two studio albums (2021, 2024) within approximately 3-year intervals, suggesting a measurable historical baseline for release timing
- ›The 97% vs 50% split indicates asymmetric confidence, with potential disagreement about the deadline window or definitional criteria for album qualification
- ›Current market volume and contract structure concentrate around SNL-related outcomes rather than album specifics, suggesting the primary resolution mechanism may be tied to a scheduled event or announcement timeline
- ›No publicly announced album has been confirmed as of the question date, leaving outcome dependent on future artist decisions and industry announcements
- ›The gap between the leader (97%) and runner-up (50%) suggests this is not a close prediction but rather reflects consensus expectations with minority dissent on either timing or definitional interpretation
Recently closed in entertainment
- Top Album on Weekly Top Albums USA on Apr 23, 2026last 95% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.