SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Aug 1, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
1 source contract·Kalshi 1·closed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 152d

Will Doja Cat be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

3%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

3%

1 contract

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

1 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

152 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 2% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 2% on 2026-07-31
Aggregate of 1 contract · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Taylor Swift be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates an 18% chance that Doja Cat will appear as a featured artist on Ariana Grande's upcoming album 'petal'. The probability reflects limited public signals about Grande's collaborator roster for this project. Key drivers include the artists' prior working relationship and industry patterns around feature selection, balanced against the absence of any announced or leaked collaboration between them. The primary resolution catalyst will be the album's release, which would confirm the final featured artist lineup. Until then, any official announcements, production credits, or label disclosures about 'petal' collaborators could significantly shift market expectations in either direction.

  • Doja Cat and Ariana Grande have not previously collaborated on a major released track, which is atypical for artists at their career levels if a feature were planned
  • The 18% probability sits substantially higher than Billie Eilish (6%) but lower than Victoria Monét (17%), suggesting modest but not strong consensus about Doja Cat's inclusion
  • No leaked production credits, studio sessions, or industry reports have publicly surfaced linking Doja Cat to 'petal' as of the market date
  • Ariana Grande's recent albums have featured a limited number of collaborators per project, constraining the total probability space across all potential artists
  • The album's release date and any pre-release announcements will provide definitive information, making this a resolvable binary outcome

Recently closed in entertainment

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.