Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1564 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film” vs “Will Peter Dinklage perform as Villain in the next James Bond film”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 2
Will Peter Dinklage perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Peter Dinklage perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Peter Dinklage
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-PET
Cluster 3
Will Rosamund Pike perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Rosamund Pike perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Rosamund Pike
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-ROS
Cluster 4
Will Idris Elba perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Idris Elba perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Idris Elba
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-IDR
Cluster 5
Will Barry Keoghan perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Barry Keoghan perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Barry Keoghan
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-BAR
Cluster 6
Will Cillian Murphy perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Cillian Murphy perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Cillian Murphy
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-CIL
Cluster 7
Will Oscar Isaac perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Oscar Isaac perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Oscar Isaac
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-OSC
Cluster 8
Will Adam Driver perform as Villain in the next James Bond film
Will Adam Driver perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?: Adam Driver
KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-ADA
Cluster 9
Will Ben Whishaw perform as Q in the next James Bond film
Will Ben Whishaw perform as Q in the next James Bond film?: Ben Whishaw
KXPERFORMROLE007-Q-BEN
Cluster 10
Will Dev Patel perform as Q in the next James Bond film
Will Dev Patel perform as Q in the next James Bond film?: Dev Patel
KXPERFORMROLE007-Q-DEV
Cluster 11
Will Richard Ayoade perform as Q in the next James Bond film
Will Richard Ayoade perform as Q in the next James Bond film?: Richard Ayoade
KXPERFORMROLE007-Q-RIC
Cluster 12
Will Andrew Scott perform as Q in the next James Bond film
Will Andrew Scott perform as Q in the next James Bond film?: Andrew Scott
KXPERFORMROLE007-Q-AND
Cluster 13
Will Naomie Harris perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Naomie Harris perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Naomie Harris
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-NAO
Cluster 14
Will Juno Temple perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Juno Temple perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Juno Temple
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-JUN
Cluster 15
Will Jodie Turner-Smith perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Cluster 16
Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Alison Oliver
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-ALI
Cluster 17
Will Meg Bellamy perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Meg Bellamy perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Meg Bellamy
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-MEG
Cluster 18
Will Jodie Comer perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Jodie Comer perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Jodie Comer
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-JODI
Cluster 19
Will Phoebe Dynevor perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Will Phoebe Dynevor perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film?: Phoebe Dynevor
KXPERFORMROLE007-MONEYPENNY-PHO
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Alison Oliver will be cast as Moneypenny in the upcoming James Bond film. The 10% probability reflects modest odds compared to several competing actresses, though specific casting announcements remain unconfirmed. Market participants are pricing in the relatively low historical frequency of established actors reprising the Moneypenny role, as well as limited public signals about Oliver's involvement in the Bond franchise. The main factors affecting this probability would be official studio announcements, casting news from Entertainment Weekly or Variety, or statements from producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. The central uncertainty resolves when the production company announces the full cast for the next Bond film, which typically occurs 12-18 months before release. Until then, traders are making assessments based on industry speculation and previous casting patterns rather than confirmed information.
- ›No official casting announcement has been made as of July 2026 for the Moneypenny role in the next Bond film
- ›Alison Oliver's profile and previous roles relative to the specific acting demands of the Moneypenny character
- ›The production timeline for the next Bond film and typical pre-release casting announcement windows
- ›Competing actresses have similar or lower probability estimates, suggesting distributed market uncertainty rather than strong consensus on any single candidate
- ›Historical patterns of whether established British actresses or newcomers have been cast in the Moneypenny role in recent Bond productions
What moved the line
- Sep 18Margaret Qualley↓17pp37→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Margaret Qualley↑11pp20→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Jodie Turner-Smith↑10pp16→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Andrew Scott↓8pp21→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Juno Temple↑7pp6→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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