Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1623 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Olivia Colman perform as M in the next James Bond film
Will Olivia Colman perform as M in the next James Bond film?: Olivia Colman
KXPERFORMROLE007-M-OLI
Cluster 2
Will Ralph Fiennes perform as M in the next James Bond film
Will Ralph Fiennes perform as M in the next James Bond film?: Ralph Fiennes
KXPERFORMROLE007-M-RAL
Cluster 3
Will Adria Arjona perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 4
Will Alicia Vikander perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 5
Will Anya Taylor-Joy perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 6
Will Cailee Spaeny perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 7
Will Daisy Edgar-Jones perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 8
Will Emma Mackey perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 9
Will Florence Pugh perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 10
Will Hunter Schafer perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 11
Will Jodie Comer perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 12
Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 13
Will Mikey Madison perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 14
Will Sydney Sweeney perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 15
Will Vanessa Kirby perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 16
Will Zendaya perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 17
Will Aaron Staton perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film
Will Aaron Staton perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?: Aaron Staton
KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-AAR
Cluster 18
Will Albert Jones perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film
Will Albert Jones perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?: Albert Jones
KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-ALB
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Alison Oliver will be cast as Moneypenny in the upcoming James Bond film. The 10% probability reflects modest odds compared to several competing actresses, though specific casting announcements remain unconfirmed. Market participants are pricing in the relatively low historical frequency of established actors reprising the Moneypenny role, as well as limited public signals about Oliver's involvement in the Bond franchise. The main factors affecting this probability would be official studio announcements, casting news from Entertainment Weekly or Variety, or statements from producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. The central uncertainty resolves when the production company announces the full cast for the next Bond film, which typically occurs 12-18 months before release. Until then, traders are making assessments based on industry speculation and previous casting patterns rather than confirmed information.
- ›No official casting announcement has been made as of July 2026 for the Moneypenny role in the next Bond film
- ›Alison Oliver's profile and previous roles relative to the specific acting demands of the Moneypenny character
- ›The production timeline for the next Bond film and typical pre-release casting announcement windows
- ›Competing actresses have similar or lower probability estimates, suggesting distributed market uncertainty rather than strong consensus on any single candidate
- ›Historical patterns of whether established British actresses or newcomers have been cast in the Moneypenny role in recent Bond productions
What moved the line
- Jul 16Anya Taylor-Joy↓6pp18→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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