Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$48
13 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1673 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sydney Sweeney perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 2
Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 3
Will Adria Arjona perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 4
Will Anya Taylor-Joy perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 5
Will Cailee Spaeny perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 6
Will Daisy Edgar-Jones perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 7
Will Florence Pugh perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 8
Will Mikey Madison perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 9
Will Zendaya perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film
Cluster 10
Will Aaron Staton perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film
Will Aaron Staton perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?: Aaron Staton
KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-AAR
Cluster 11
Will Albert Jones perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film
Will Albert Jones perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?: Albert Jones
KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-ALB
Cluster 12
Will Anthony Mackie perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film
Will Anthony Mackie perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?: Anthony Mackie
KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-ANT
Cluster 13
Will Boyd Holbrook perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film
Will Boyd Holbrook perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?: Boyd Holbrook
KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-BOY
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Alison Oliver will be cast as Moneypenny in the upcoming James Bond film. At 6%, the market suggests this is considered unlikely relative to other potential casting choices. The current low probability likely reflects the lack of official announcements regarding either the next Bond film's production timeline or its casting decisions. Key factors driving this estimate include Oliver's profile in the industry, competing candidates for the role, and the typical casting patterns for Bond franchise supporting characters. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be an official announcement from the Bond producers about the next film's cast, which typically occurs during pre-production publicity phases.
- ›No confirmed release date or production start date has been announced for the next Bond film as of May 2026, creating high uncertainty about casting timelines
- ›Alison Oliver's casting history and visibility in major franchise roles relative to other actors typically considered for Bond supporting characters
- ›The Moneypenny role has specific casting precedents (previous actresses in the role) that may influence market expectations about demographic and professional profiles
- ›Bond film casting announcements typically occur months before production begins, meaning any material update would likely come from official studio communications
- ›The current 6% probability level suggests the market views other candidates as significantly more likely, which would shift if Oliver were publicly linked to the project
What moved the line
- May 28Margaret Qualley↑12pp5→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 29Margaret Qualley↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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