Will Harris English lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
10 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Rory McIlroy
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-RMCI
Cluster 2
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Cameron Young
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-CAME
Cluster 3
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Scottie Scheffler
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-SSCH
Cluster 4
Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Collin Morikawa
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-CMOR
Cluster 5
Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Ludvig Aberg
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-LABE
Cluster 6
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Matt Fitzpatrick
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-MFIT
Cluster 7
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Bryson DeChambeau
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-BDEC
Cluster 8
Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Jon Rahm
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-JRAH
Cluster 9
Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Xander Schauffele lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Xander Schauffele
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-XSCH
Cluster 10
Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Jacob Bridgeman lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Jacob Bridgeman
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-JBRI
Analysis
This contract asks whether Harris English will have the lowest score after 18 holes of the PGA Championship. The 5% probability reflects that English would need to outperform roughly 150 other competitors in a single round to lead. Harris English's historical performance at major championships and his current form relative to top-ranked players influence this estimate. The primary driver of the probability is his tournament history and season statistics compared to favorites like Scheffler, McIlroy, and Young, who occupy similar markets at higher probabilities. The contract resolves when the PGA Championship's opening round concludes and official scoring is finalized. Market activity for related contracts shows greater confidence in established top-10 ranked players leading after Round 1, suggesting a gap in perceived likelihood between English and leading competitors.
- ›Harris English's world ranking and recent tournament results compared to other competitors in the field
- ›Historical performance by English in major championships, particularly first-round scoring patterns
- ›Field size and competition depth at the PGA Championship versus English's baseline winning probability
- ›Current odds for top-ranked players like Scheffler (9¢) and McIlroy (8¢) to lead suggest English carries structural disadvantage
- ›Whether English qualifies for and enters the specific PGA Championship tournament being referenced
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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