Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC
Leader sits at 36% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
El Mokawloon El Arab SC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Draw (Pharco FC vs. El Mokaw
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC
Analysis
This 36% probability indicates that Pharco FC is favored but not strongly favored to win against El Mokawloon El Arab SC. The market reflects moderate confidence in Pharco's victory, with nearly one-third of probability mass distributed among alternative outcomes. The current pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field considerations. Key factors pushing probability up or down would include team lineup confirmations, injury updates in the days before the match, and any shift in Egyptian Premier League standings that alters playoff implications. The match result on its scheduled date will definitively resolve this contract, eliminating all remaining uncertainty around this fixture.
- ›Pharco's recent performance trend and current league position relative to El Mokawloon
- ›Injury or suspension status of key players for either squad ahead of the fixture
- ›Historical head-to-head record between the two clubs and goal-scoring patterns
- ›Home-field advantage status and crowd dynamics at the designated venue
- ›League standings context: whether this match affects qualification, playoff seeding, or title race implications
What moved the line
- May 3Pharco FC↑5pp24→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Draw (Pharco FC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC)↑4pp31→35¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.