Pro Football
Leader sits at 89% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Where will Dexter Lawrence p
Spread
84pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$184
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
1017 days
Venue
Polymarket
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots
0xe97020…aa73
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals
0x449420…b12d
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Philadelphia Eagles
0x0a3d88…a558
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New Orleans Saints
0x55213c…2db1
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Houston Texans
0x75778e…80e5
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Green Bay Packers
0x8574cf…9ef3
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Denver Broncos
0x45b47c…e670
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Carolina Panthers
0x133dc2…53a5
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Atlanta Falcons
0x5c152e…ce10
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Washington Commanders
0x456bf0…c925
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Seattle Seahawks
0x4b7673…8316
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Minnesota Vikings
0x935c49…d851
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Las Vegas Raiders
0x11a04d…70a4
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Indianapolis Colts
0x918090…6161
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Chicago Bears
0x378de2…2ddc
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Buffalo Bills
0x78566c…aef3
Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Baltimore Ravens
0x3598fa…95ea
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Houston will win the 2027 NFL championship, based on 20 simultaneous contracts where traders allocate probabilities across all 32 teams. At 90%, this reflects extremely high confidence in Houston relative to other franchises; by comparison, San Francisco trades at 5% and Cincinnati at 3%. The current level reflects Houston's recent roster composition, coaching stability, and perceived competitive window. Primary upward pressure would come from draft results, free-agent acquisitions, or strong preseason performance; downward pressure could result from injury to key players, coaching changes, or playoff disappointment in 2026. The most immediate resolution catalyst is the 2026 NFL season (September 2026 through early 2027), which will demonstrate Houston's actual competitive standing and generate new information about roster health, coaching decisions, and divisional dynamics that investors currently price into these contracts.
- ›Houston's contract price of 3 cents on Kalshi implies roughly 3% individual win probability, creating a 30x gap between the market leader and the lowest-priced team shown
- ›The aggregate volume across contracts ($128k+ in 24h trading) indicates material but not exceptional liquidity relative to major championship markets
- ›Mike Vrabel's coaching future (19 cents on Kalshi) represents near-term uncertainty that could significantly alter Houston's championship trajectory before the 2027 season
- ›San Francisco and Detroit, traditional contenders, trade at 5 cents—only marginally below Houston despite different roster situations and recent playoff history
- ›The 2026 NFL regular season and playoffs (September 2026–January 2027) will be the primary mechanism for repricing all 32 team probabilities as actual team performance data emerges
What moved the line
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Philadelphia Eagles↓36pp44→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Indianapolis Colts↓36pp43→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Chicago Bears↓35pp41→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals↑33pp56→89¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Buffalo Bills↓33pp40→7¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.