Pumas de la UNAM vs. FC Juárez
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 31%, Polymarket at 36% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
9 contracts
Polymarket
36%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$136K
10 contracts
Top contract
27¢
$91K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 31¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (31¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Pumas UNAM at America: Totals: Over
Pumas UNAM at America: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXLIGAMXTOTAL-26MAY03AMEPUM-2
Pumas UNAM at America: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXLIGAMXTOTAL-26MAY03AMEPUM-3
Pumas UNAM at America: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXLIGAMXTOTAL-26MAY03AMEPUM-1
Pumas UNAM at America: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXLIGAMXTOTAL-26MAY03AMEPUM-4
Cluster 2
America vs Pumas UNAM Winner
Cluster 3
Will Pumas UNAM win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Pumas UNAM win the Liga MX Clausura?: Pumas UNAM
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-PUM
Cluster 4
Pumas UNAM wins by over 1.5 goals
Pumas UNAM wins by over 1.5 goals?: Pumas UNAM wins by over 1.5 goals
KXLIGAMXSPREAD-26MAY03AMEPUM-PUM1
Cluster 5
Liga MX: Winner: Pumas UNAM
Liga MX: Winner: Pumas UNAM
0x48763e…380a
What moved the line
- Apr 29Winner: Pumas UNAM↓16pp38→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Pumas UNAM↑14pp23→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 1America↑11pp39→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Pumas UNAM↓11pp20→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Pumas UNAM↑7pp19→26¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.