SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 h agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d25pp · 8h

Punjab FC vs. Chennaiyin FC - More Markets

Leader sits at 76% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

76%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 53¢leader 76¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

53¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

23pp

contested

24h volume

$11

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 75% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 75% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 51% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 51% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 51% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.575¢O/U 2.551¢Both Teams to Score51¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

The 51% probability reflects the market's current assessment that Punjab FC is favored to win their matchup against Chennaiyin FC, though the outcome remains uncertain. The leading contract on Polymarket is priced at 65 cents, indicating investors believe Punjab has a meaningful edge. Key factors influencing this probability include the recent form and head-to-head record of both teams, their defensive and offensive statistics, and player availability through injuries or suspensions. The main resolution catalyst is the scheduled match itself, which will determine the outcome definitively. Volume on this contract ($500 in 24-hour trading) suggests moderate market interest, though the relatively narrow gap between leader and runner-up positions (51% vs 39%) indicates material disagreement among participants about which team will prevail. Shifts in probability would likely follow team news, lineup announcements, or significant betting activity from sophisticated participants.

  • Punjab FC is priced at 65 cents on the primary contract versus 35 cents implied for Chennaiyin FC, establishing clear market favoritism
  • 24-hour trading volume of $500 on the top contract indicates reasonable liquidity but relatively concentrated interest versus other events
  • Runner-up position holds 39% implied probability, showing substantial disagreement and lack of overwhelming consensus
  • Match outcome depends on factors including current league standing, head-to-head history, injury status, and recent form of both squads
  • The spread between top contract (51%) and runner-up (39%) leaves 10% unaccounted, suggesting meaningful uncertainty or fragmentation across the five bound contracts

What moved the line

  • May 2Chennaiyin FC (-1.5)10pp3727¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Chennaiyin FC (-1.5)9pp2718¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Punjab FC (-2.5)6pp3630¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Chennaiyin FC (-2.5)6pp3630¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Chennaiyin FC (-2.5)4pp3026¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 h ago.