Will Joseph Aoun visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$666
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping
KXWHVISIT-27-XJIN
Cluster 2
Will Joe Biden visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Joe Biden visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Joe Biden
KXWHVISIT-27-JBID
Cluster 3
Will Vladimir Putin visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXWHVISIT-27-VPUT
Cluster 4
Will Gavin Newsom visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gavin Newsom visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Gavin Newsom
KXWHVISIT-27-GNEW
Cluster 5
Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama
KXWHVISIT-27-OBAM
Cluster 6
Will Bill Maher visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bill Maher visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Maher
KXWHVISIT-27-BMAH
Cluster 7
Will Reza Pahlavi visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Reza Pahlavi visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Reza Pahlavi
KXWHVISIT-27-RPAH
Cluster 8
Will John Ternus visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will John Ternus visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: John Ternus
KXWHVISIT-27-JTER
Cluster 9
Will Eric Adams visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Eric Adams visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Eric Adams
KXWHVISIT-27-EADA
Cluster 10
Will Mark Carney visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mark Carney visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Carney
KXWHVISIT-27-MCAR
Cluster 11
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KXWHVISIT-27-MTG
Cluster 12
Will Hakeem Jeffries visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hakeem Jeffries visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Hakeem Jeffries
KXWHVISIT-27-HJEF
Cluster 13
Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Elon Musk
KXWHVISIT-27-EMUS
Cluster 14
Will Cristiano Ronaldo visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Cristiano Ronaldo visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Cristiano Ronaldo
KXWHVISIT-27-CRON
Cluster 15
Will Mark Zuckerberg visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mark Zuckerberg visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg
KXWHVISIT-27-MZUC
Cluster 16
Will Pope Leo XIV visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Pope Leo XIV visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Pope Leo XIV
KXWHVISIT-27-PLEO
Cluster 17
Will Jerome Powell visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jerome Powell visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Jerome Powell
KXWHVISIT-27-JPOW
Cluster 18
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
KXWHVISIT-27-VZEL
Cluster 19
Will Claudia Sheinbaum visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Claudia Sheinbaum visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Claudia Sheinbaum
KXWHVISIT-27-CSHE
Cluster 20
Will Sam Altman visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sam Altman visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Altman
KXWHVISIT-27-SAMA
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that Joseph Aoun, president of Northeastern University, will visit the White House before the end of 2026. At 36%, the market assigns this outcome roughly one-in-three odds. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Aoun would be invited for an official event or meeting during the remaining eight months of 2026. Key drivers include Aoun's public profile and any scheduled White House convocations involving university leaders, such as education policy forums or research initiatives. The market data shows limited trading volume ($768 across 18 contracts), suggesting relatively low confidence in the probability estimate. Resolution depends on whether an official visit occurs and is publicly documented before January 1, 2027. Similar contracts show wide variation—Xi Jinping trades at 58 cents while Joe Biden trades at 4 cents—indicating different base rates for different types of visitors.
- ›Aoun's current role as Northeastern University president and whether education sector leadership meetings at the White House are scheduled in 2026
- ›Frequency of university president visits to the White House in comparable historical periods and current White House engagement patterns with academic institutions
- ›Public announcements or reports of official White House events specifically inviting Aoun or Northeastern representatives before December 31, 2026
- ›Trading volume and volatility in this contract relative to other visitor contracts, suggesting market confidence levels in the probability
- ›Whether Aoun has any current policy role or public profile that would warrant a White House visit beyond routine academic engagements
What moved the line
- Apr 26John Ternus↓21pp62→41¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Sam Altman↓9pp87→78¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27John Ternus↓7pp41→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Xi Jinping↑4pp49→53¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Xi Jinping↓3pp50→47¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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