Will Joseph Aoun visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Elon Musk visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Elon Musk
KXWHVISIT-27-EMUS
Cluster 2
Will John Ternus visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will John Ternus visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: John Ternus
KXWHVISIT-27-JTER
Cluster 3
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Xi Jinping visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Xi Jinping
KXWHVISIT-27-XJIN
Cluster 4
Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Barack Obama visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama
KXWHVISIT-27-OBAM
Cluster 5
Will Joe Biden visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Joe Biden visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Joe Biden
KXWHVISIT-27-JBID
Cluster 6
Will Hakeem Jeffries visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hakeem Jeffries visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Hakeem Jeffries
KXWHVISIT-27-HJEF
Cluster 7
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KXWHVISIT-27-MTG
Cluster 8
Will Vladimir Putin visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vladimir Putin visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Vladimir Putin
KXWHVISIT-27-VPUT
Cluster 9
Will Eric Adams visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Eric Adams visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Eric Adams
KXWHVISIT-27-EADA
Cluster 10
Will Mark Carney visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mark Carney visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Mark Carney
KXWHVISIT-27-MCAR
Cluster 11
Will Cristiano Ronaldo visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Cristiano Ronaldo visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Cristiano Ronaldo
KXWHVISIT-27-CRON
Cluster 12
Will Gavin Newsom visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gavin Newsom visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Gavin Newsom
KXWHVISIT-27-GNEW
Cluster 13
Will Pope Leo XIV visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Pope Leo XIV visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Pope Leo XIV
KXWHVISIT-27-PLEO
Cluster 14
Will Claudia Sheinbaum visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Claudia Sheinbaum visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Claudia Sheinbaum
KXWHVISIT-27-CSHE
Cluster 15
Will Abiy Ahmed visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Abiy Ahmed visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Abiy Ahmed
KXWHVISIT-27-AAHM
Cluster 16
Will Hun Manet visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hun Manet visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027?: Hun Manet
KXWHVISIT-27-HMAN
Analysis
This probability represents whether Joseph Aoun, the president of Northeastern University, will visit the White House before the end of 2026. At 28%, the market suggests this outcome is moderately unlikely but not exceptional. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether Aoun would be invited for a formal meeting, education policy discussion, or public event at the White House. Key drivers include the incoming president's education priorities, whether Aoun's university features in federal policy initiatives, and the frequency of university leader engagements at the White House. Most catalysts would emerge from official announcements or public schedules released by either the White House or Northeastern University indicating a scheduled visit. The comparison contracts show wide variation in visit probabilities across different public figures, ranging from 81% for Xi Jinping to 16% for Cristiano Ronaldo, reflecting the highly contextual nature of White House visitor predictions.
- ›Recent appointments or policy announcements from the White House regarding higher education leadership or university partnerships
- ›Public statements from Northeastern University or the White House communications office about scheduled meetings or collaborative initiatives
- ›Historical frequency of university president visits to the White House during similar periods under the current administration
- ›Calendar announcements or official event listings from the White House website showing confirmed visitor schedules through December 2026
- ›Media reports or press releases indicating Aoun's involvement in federal education policy discussions or task forces
What moved the line
- Sep 19Elon Musk↑20pp57→77¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Hakeem Jeffries↓19pp25→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19John Ternus↓14pp30→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Hakeem Jeffries↓13pp38→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18John Ternus↓9pp39→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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