SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

39%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

39%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$236

20 contracts

Top contract

41¢

$63 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 34% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 34% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC” vs “Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC

10 contracts$217

Cluster 2

Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets

9 contracts$9

Cluster 3

Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

1 contract$10

What moved the line

  • May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)10pp2616¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)8pp2331¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)6pp2632¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)6pp2329¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)5pp2823¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.