Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$54
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8508f6…067a
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x8c7c03…b8bb
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x20d0cd…a5ef
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)
0x6ffa32…eeea
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)
0x9e39af…bb75
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5)
0x3ed805…a3e4
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)
0x817c8e…fc3f
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2251c7…d389
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2c997e…95c4
Analysis
This market estimates a 73% probability that the Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC match will produce fewer than 1.5 goals total. The high probability suggests traders expect a low-scoring outcome, likely driven by recent team form, defensive strength, or historical head-to-head patterns. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, at which point the total goals scored will settle the contract. Key considerations include each team's current goal-scoring rate, defensive record in recent fixtures, and whether either side enters the match with injuries to key attacking or defensive players.
- ›Recent goal-scoring trends for both Qingdao Xihaian and Tianjin Jinmen Hu in their last 5-10 matches
- ›Head-to-head scoring history between these two clubs in previous encounters
- ›Current injury status of key forwards and defensive players for each team
- ›Each team's defensive solidity and clean sheet record this season
- ›Whether either team is under specific tactical instructions (defensive play, rest rotation, or injury management)
What moved the line
- May 3O/U 4.5↑10pp16→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)↑10pp25→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)↓9pp29→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)↓7pp30→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 4.5↓5pp21→16¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.