SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 2d1pp · 6h

Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5

Leader sits at 72% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

72%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 52¢leader 72¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

52¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

20pp

contested

24h volume

$54

thin orderbook

Closes

May 5, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 73% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 73% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 53% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 53% on 2026-05-02O/U 2.5: 47% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 47% on 2026-05-02
O/U 1.573¢Both Teams to Score53¢O/U 2.547¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 73% probability that the Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC match will produce fewer than 1.5 goals total. The high probability suggests traders expect a low-scoring outcome, likely driven by recent team form, defensive strength, or historical head-to-head patterns. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, at which point the total goals scored will settle the contract. Key considerations include each team's current goal-scoring rate, defensive record in recent fixtures, and whether either side enters the match with injuries to key attacking or defensive players.

  • Recent goal-scoring trends for both Qingdao Xihaian and Tianjin Jinmen Hu in their last 5-10 matches
  • Head-to-head scoring history between these two clubs in previous encounters
  • Current injury status of key forwards and defensive players for each team
  • Each team's defensive solidity and clean sheet record this season
  • Whether either team is under specific tactical instructions (defensive play, rest rotation, or injury management)

What moved the line

  • May 3O/U 4.510pp1626¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)10pp2535¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)9pp2920¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)7pp3023¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 4.55pp2116¢ · Polymarket

More like this

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.