Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 5%, Polymarket at 28% — a 23pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
28%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
23pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
11 contracts
Top contract
5¢
$896 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 5¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 23pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (5¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (28¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC” vs “Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: Cruzeiro EC
0xd752fa…fd21
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: CD Universidad Católica
0xd2fbb1…54bd
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xb669de…1baf
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x31951d…fba5
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)
0x3e4bfc…77e0
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: CD Universidad Católica (-2.5)
0x34cc52…06dd
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC: Draw (CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC)
0xad7996…ab4b
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5)
0x49cffa…0f8c
CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x164f43…5e38
Cluster 2
Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura?: Cruz Azul
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-CRA
Cluster 3
Liga MX: Winner: Cruz Azul
Liga MX: Winner: Cruz Azul
0xabb43b…0d0a
What moved the line
- Apr 29Winner: Cruz Azul↓20pp34→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Winner: Cruz Azul↓19pp25→6¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Cruz Azul↓10pp20→10¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Cruz Azul↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Cruz Azul↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.