SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 13 min ago

Racing Club vs. CA Barracas Central

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

25%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

25%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$306

20 contracts

Top contract

$306 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 23% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 23% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

3 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia” vs “CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia

12 contracts$0

Cluster 2

CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad

6 contracts$306

Cluster 3

Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets

2 contracts$0

What moved the line

  • May 3Club Libertad (-2.5)5pp116¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3CA Rosario Central (-2.5)4pp1923¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.