Racing Louisville FC vs. Orlando Pride
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 32% — a 5pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
8 contracts
Polymarket
32%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
5pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8
20 contracts
Top contract
22¢
$4 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 32¢ · 5pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (32¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club” vs “Will GIANTX PRIDE win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
0x50a3e5…ff1a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Racing Club
0x788488…e536
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Draw (Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club)
0x286a72…52c4
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Botafogo FR
0xc2f328…09e8
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
0xd6abb8…2411
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd61678…cc29
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc91f8e…fc4a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-1.5)
0xc988a4…7704
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5c8e41…b6f1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9bdf90…2be9
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x32d4ab…3c4b
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-2.5)
0x15e436…84a3
Cluster 2
Will GIANTX PRIDE win
Will GIANTX PRIDE win map 1 in the GIANTX PRIDE vs. Barça eSports match?: GIANTX PRIDE
KXLOLMAP-26MAY061400GXPBAR-1-GXP
Will GIANTX PRIDE win the GIANTX PRIDE vs. Barça eSports League of Legends match?: GIANTX PRIDE
KXLOLGAME-26MAY061400GXPBAR-GXP
Will GIANTX PRIDE win map 2 in the GIANTX PRIDE vs. Barça eSports match?: GIANTX PRIDE
KXLOLMAP-26MAY061400GXPBAR-2-GXP
Cluster 3
Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner
Cluster 4
Will Barça eSports win
Cluster 5
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the GIANTX PRIDE vs. Barça eSports League of Legends match
What moved the line
- May 2Gotham↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Racing Louisville↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.