Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate - More Markets: CA River Plate (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 40%, Polymarket at 20% — a 20pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
17 contracts
Polymarket
20%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
20pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Top contract
62¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 40¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 20pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
9 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Bragantino at” vs “Will Nongshim Red Force win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Bragantino at
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-2
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-4
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-1
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-4
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-1
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-2
Cluster 2
Will Nongshim Red Force win
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY040700NSDK-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060400NSGEN-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY060400NSGEN-1-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-1-NS
Cluster 3
Will Dplus KIA win
Cluster 4
CA Platense vs. CA Peñarol
Cluster 5
Will Gen.G win map
Cluster 6
River Plate vs Tucuman Winner
River Plate vs Tucuman Winner?: River Plate
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY03RIVTUC-RIV
Cluster 7
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-RED
Cluster 8
Brazil Série A: Winner: Red Bull Bragantino
Brazil Série A: Winner: Red Bull Bragantino
0x958687…f780
Cluster 9
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match
What moved the line
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑36pp32→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Nongshim Red Force↑29pp4→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Winner: Red Bull Bragantino↓26pp36→10¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Winner: Red Bull Bragantino↑25pp11→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.