Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 34%, Polymarket at 37% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
18 contracts
Polymarket
37%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$804
20 contracts
Top contract
19¢
$261 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 34¢ · Polymarket 37¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (34¢, 18 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Bragantino at” vs “Will Nongshim Red Force win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Bragantino at
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-2
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-4
Bragantino at Chapecoense: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY03CHARBB-1
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-1
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-2
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-3
Bragantino at Santos: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXBRASILEIROTOTAL-26MAY10SANRBB-4
Cluster 2
Will Nongshim Red Force win
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY040700NSDK-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G League of Legends match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLGAME-26MAY060400NSGEN-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 2 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY060400NSGEN-2-NS
Will Nongshim Red Force win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Dplus KIA match?: Nongshim Red Force
KXLOLMAP-26MAY040700NSDK-1-NS
Cluster 3
Palmeiras at Remo: Totals: Over
Cluster 4
Will Dplus KIA win
Cluster 5
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: CS Cristal
0xcc6e97…748e
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras
0x892018…7576
Cluster 6
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor
Miami Grand Prix: Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing
KXF1TOPCONSTRUCTOR-MIAGP26-RED
Cluster 7
Will Gen.G win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G match
Will Gen.G win map 1 in the Nongshim Red Force vs. Gen.G match?: Gen.G
KXLOLMAP-26MAY060400NSGEN-1-GEN
What moved the line
- Apr 28Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored↑36pp32→68¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Nongshim Red Force↑29pp4→33¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Dplus KIA↑24pp31→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Dplus KIA↑14pp31→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.