Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 53%, Polymarket at 28% — a 25pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
1 contract
Polymarket
28%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
25pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
20 contracts
Top contract
53¢
$8K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 53¢ · Polymarket 28¢ · 25pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (28¢, 19 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (53¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets” vs “Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-2.5)
0xd13fc2…30fc
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xddd281…3d6c
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-1.5)
0xfaa9e3…cc5a
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)
0x56031e…4746
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x6c1549…222e
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x7b3618…b693
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x53c14f…56ac
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x8b5451…a1df
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
0x32804c…2971
Cluster 2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x1ae4fa…7485
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5)
0xc60a6d…d8a2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x1083aa…04fd
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)
0xadcf74…f821
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x137a07…5c60
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xde5526…9dbc
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)
0x13fca1…9be2
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8c771d…0d08
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)
0xf874fe…2d7f
Cluster 3
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs
Baltimore vs New York Y Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031335BALNYY-9
Cluster 4
Brazil Série A: Winner: Red Bull Bragantino
Brazil Série A: Winner: Red Bull Bragantino
0x958687…f780
What moved the line
- Apr 30Winner: Red Bull Bragantino↓26pp36→10¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Winner: Red Bull Bragantino↑25pp11→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)↓8pp37→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CS Cristal (-1.5)↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Winner: Red Bull Bragantino↑6pp5→11¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.