Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Reilac Shiga
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Renofa Yamaguchi FC
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Reilac Shiga has a 47% chance of winning this matchup against Renofa Yamaguchi FC. The probability reflects relatively balanced competitive expectations between the two teams, with the market assigning meaningful probability to both a Reilac Shiga victory and a Renofa Yamaguchi FC win at 40%. The contract volume across related markets (over/under totals, handicap lines, draw outcomes) suggests uncertainty about match dynamics—whether the game will be low-scoring or feature goals from both sides. The 47% leader probability indicates neither team is heavily favored. Key considerations driving the odds likely include recent form, head-to-head history, squad availability, and home-field advantage if applicable. The actual match result will resolve all uncertainty around this outcome.
- ›Reilac Shiga is priced as a slight favorite at 47% versus Renofa Yamaguchi FC at 40%, with 13% probability allocated to a draw
- ›Over/Under 1.5 goals prices highest at 61¢, while Over/Under 2.5 sits at 53¢, suggesting market expects low-to-moderate scoring
- ›Handicap contract pricing Reilac Shiga at -1.5 goals at 38¢ indicates skepticism about a decisive victory margin for either side
- ›Both Teams to Score contract at 50¢ reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the match will feature goals from both teams
- ›Zero 24-hour volume across all listed contracts suggests limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.