US Montalbanaise vs Racing 92 Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 25%, Polymarket at 49% — a 24pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
9 contracts
Polymarket
49%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
24pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$781
10 contracts
Top contract
42¢
$439 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 25¢ · Polymarket 49¢ · 24pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (25¢, 9 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (49¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Racing Avellaneda vs Huracan Winner” vs “Racing Club vs Montevideo City Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Racing Avellaneda vs Huracan Winner
Racing Avellaneda vs Huracan Winner?: Racing Avellaneda
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY03RACHUR-RAC
Racing Avellaneda vs Huracan Winner?: Tie
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY03RACHUR-TIE
Racing Avellaneda vs Huracan Winner?: Huracan
KXARGPREMDIVGAME-26MAY03RACHUR-HUR
Cluster 2
Racing Club vs Montevideo City Winner
Cluster 3
Gotham vs Racing Louisville Winner
Cluster 4
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Racing de Chivilcoy
Liga Nacional de Básquetbol: Winner: Racing de Chivilcoy
0xbf45c7…4d88
What moved the line
- May 1Racing Avellaneda↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Tie↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Tie↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Racing Louisville↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Gotham↑3pp5→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.