Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Sagan Tosu
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Gainare Tottori
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori
Analysis
This market reflects the estimated likelihood that Sagan Tosu will defeat Gainare Tottori in an upcoming Japanese football match. Sagan Tosu is priced as the moderate favorite at 51%, suggesting the market views them as slightly more likely to win, though the outcome remains competitive. Historical performance, current league position, recent form, and head-to-head records typically drive these assessments. The match outcome will be determined when the fixture is played; the specific date and venue would represent the key moment of resolution. Secondary markets on goal totals (Over/Under 2.5 and 3.5) indicate moderate expectations for scoring, suggesting this matchup is not expected to be exceptionally high-scoring. Overall low trading volume across contracts indicates limited market liquidity and relatively light interest in pricing this particular fixture.
- ›Current league standing and points differential between Sagan Tosu and Gainare Tottori entering the fixture
- ›Recent form metrics: wins, draws, and losses in each team's last 5–10 matches
- ›Head-to-head historical record and goal differential in previous matchups between the two clubs
- ›Home/away advantage status: which team plays at their home ground, or if neutral venue
- ›Expected lineup availability and key player injury status, if applicable
What moved the line
- May 3Gainare Tottori↓8pp40→32¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 13 min ago.