San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 32%, Polymarket at 36% — a 4pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
36%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
4pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$156
20 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 32¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 4pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (32¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets” vs “Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xa69c04…1624
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xc4dd63…8eeb
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)
0x0ba8c8…aa51
CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8d5ad4…be44
Cluster 2
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Cluster 3
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC Winner
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 6
Kataller Toyama vs. Kamatamare Sanuki - More Markets
Cluster 7
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Cluster 8
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x7c53e9…1f69
What moved the line
- May 3San Diego Wave FC↑52pp14→66¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tie↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 1San Diego Wave FC↑5pp5→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Kamatamare Sanuki (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.