SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 12 outcomes12 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min ago

SC Delhi vs. Punjab FC

Leader sits at 76% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 65%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

76%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 65¢leader 76¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

65¢

Punjab FC

Spread

11pp

contested

24h volume

$511

thin orderbook

Closes

not derived

Venue

Polymarket

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 75% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 75% on 2026-05-03Punjab FC: 65% (3 days, 3 points)Punjab FC: 65% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 51% on 2026-05-02
O/U 1.575¢Punjab FC65¢O/U 2.551¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 3Punjab FC19pp4665¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Chennaiyin FC14pp3016¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Chennaiyin FC (-1.5)10pp3727¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Chennaiyin FC (-1.5)9pp2718¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Chennaiyin FC (-2.5)6pp3630¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.