SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 32%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
2 contracts
Polymarket
32%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$741
20 contracts
Top contract
39¢
$321 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras” vs “Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-2.5)
0xd13fc2…30fc
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: CS Cristal
0xcc6e97…748e
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras
0x892018…7576
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
0x32804c…2971
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x8b5451…a1df
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xddd281…3d6c
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x7b3618…b693
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: Draw (CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras)
0xe78ed7…e659
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets: CS Cristal (-1.5)
0xfaa9e3…cc5a
Cluster 2
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Santos FC (-2.5)
0x8b7d1b…e535
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Recoleta FC (-2.5)
0x59c797…6901
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x649f75…c7d8
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Recoleta FC (-1.5)
0x227b41…2799
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x5f871d…f819
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x2e35d2…f460
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC - More Markets: Santos FC (-1.5)
0x977bf5…7607
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: Santos FC
0x16aabc…08ee
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: Recoleta FC
0xb7af62…55d6
Cluster 3
Will Robelis Despaigne win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne UFC fight in Round 1: Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1
Cluster 4
Will either competitor win the Junior Dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne fight by decision or the fight result in a draw/no contest: Decision / Draw / No Contest
What moved the line
- May 3Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1↓21pp42→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Santos FC (-2.5)↑11pp12→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CS Cristal (-1.5)↑8pp11→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Recoleta FC (-1.5)↑7pp6→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3CS Cristal (-2.5)↓4pp10→6¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.