Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Leader sits at 85% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 69%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
69¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$154
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x20d721…2fe8
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xff2a9a…cd1f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)
0x15f1cb…719f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1e5ceb…d94f
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xb2fdfb…12fc
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)
0xfa1d79…8e45
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)
0x8d6eb4…11cc
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)
0x1602b2…5c4d
Analysis
This market estimates an 85% probability that the Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC match will produce more than 2.5 total goals. The high probability reflects expectations of an attacking-oriented match typical of Chinese Super League fixtures featuring these competitive sides. The probability is driven by both teams' recent goal-scoring patterns and historical head-to-head outcomes. Market volume remains modest at $52 in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited consensus-building among bettors. The match result will be determined once the final whistle sounds and official goal tallies are recorded, likely resolving within a single day. Shifts in this probability would track changes in team lineup confirmations, injury reports for key attacking players, or adjusted betting activity from professional traders who may have different historical data or tactical assessments.
- ›Recent goal-scoring rates for both Shandong Taishan and Shanghai Shenhua in their last 5-10 competitive matches
- ›Availability of key attacking or defensive players for both sides heading into match day
- ›Historical head-to-head goal totals between these teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Match venue, weather conditions, and whether either team has motivation considerations (playoff standing, cup positioning)
- ›Closing line movement and trading volume across multiple platforms 24 hours before kickoff
What moved the line
- May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)↓10pp26→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)↑8pp23→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)↑6pp23→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)↓5pp28→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 3.5↑3pp43→46¢ · Polymarket
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.