SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min agoCloses May 5, 2026 · 2d

Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

Leader sits at 85% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 69%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

85%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 69¢leader 85¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

69¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

16pp

contested

24h volume

$154

thin orderbook

Closes

May 5, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 85% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 85% on 2026-05-02Both Teams to Score: 70% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 70% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 66% (3 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 66% on 2026-05-02
O/U 1.585¢Both Teams to Score70¢O/U 2.566¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates an 85% probability that the Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC match will produce more than 2.5 total goals. The high probability reflects expectations of an attacking-oriented match typical of Chinese Super League fixtures featuring these competitive sides. The probability is driven by both teams' recent goal-scoring patterns and historical head-to-head outcomes. Market volume remains modest at $52 in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited consensus-building among bettors. The match result will be determined once the final whistle sounds and official goal tallies are recorded, likely resolving within a single day. Shifts in this probability would track changes in team lineup confirmations, injury reports for key attacking players, or adjusted betting activity from professional traders who may have different historical data or tactical assessments.

  • Recent goal-scoring rates for both Shandong Taishan and Shanghai Shenhua in their last 5-10 competitive matches
  • Availability of key attacking or defensive players for both sides heading into match day
  • Historical head-to-head goal totals between these teams over the past 2-3 seasons
  • Match venue, weather conditions, and whether either team has motivation considerations (playoff standing, cup positioning)
  • Closing line movement and trading volume across multiple platforms 24 hours before kickoff

What moved the line

  • May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)10pp2616¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)8pp2331¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)6pp2329¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)5pp2823¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2O/U 3.53pp4346¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.