SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

37%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

37%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$365

20 contracts

Top contract

$306 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 32% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 32% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC” vs “Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC

10 contracts$347

Cluster 2

Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC

10 contracts$18

What moved the line

  • May 2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC8pp3022¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Draw (Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC)8pp2921¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)6pp2632¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shanghai Haigang FC5pp5863¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Draw (Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC)5pp3126¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.