Sheffield United FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 4%, Polymarket at 37% — a 33pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
37%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
33pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$591
20 contracts
Top contract
48¢
$298 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 4¢ · Polymarket 37¢ · 33pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (4¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC” vs “FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x799b41…e88e
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xe281be…c04a
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: Fujieda MYFC (-1.5)
0xb2f97d…27c2
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC - More Markets: Fukushima United FC (-1.5)
0x37f47e…19c3
Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC: Fukushima United FC
0x19ecdc…09ff
Cluster 2
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xf48e4b…939a
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: Kōchi United SC (-1.5)
0x288303…8cb2
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x58385d…685c
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2274e1…b6f2
FC Imabari vs. Kōchi United SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xa5ce22…337e
Cluster 3
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x58a705…db3a
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc0ca93…26cd
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xc65258…6bb8
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita - More Markets: Kagoshima United FC (-1.5)
0x9d9d39…1252
Cluster 4
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC: Incheon United FC
0x10cbc2…77dd
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: Incheon United FC (-2.5)
0x4ce71d…a7ed
Cluster 5
United States vs. Paraguay
Cluster 6
Will Sheffield United be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season
Will Sheffield United be promoted from the EFL Championship in the 2025-26 season?: Sheffield United
KXEFLPROMO-26-SHU
What moved the line
- May 2Incheon United FC (-2.5)↓17pp35→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Fukushima United FC (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 26Sheffield United↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Kōchi United SC (-1.5)↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Incheon United FC↓4pp32→28¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.