SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

35%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

35%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$1K

20 contracts

Top contract

16¢

$575 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 33% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 33% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC” vs “Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC

11 contracts$1K

Cluster 2

Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC - More Markets

9 contracts$321

What moved the line

  • May 2Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)10pp3222¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Liaoning Tieren FC9pp2516¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)6pp126¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)6pp1723¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)5pp1712¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.