Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Nagoya Grampus
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
33%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
20 contracts
Top contract
38¢
$5 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka” vs “Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Nagoya Grampus
0x25132a…c79e
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)
0x0524ea…9f8d
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xec59e7…8852
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x164f65…9ef8
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x6cfc8d…7b8f
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xe57d5e…f288
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc12420…a052
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x97c68a…0456
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Draw (Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka)
0xde13b8…b1c5
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka - More Markets: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)
0x0a8118…d88b
Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Gamba Ōsaka
0xec591d…0446
Cluster 2
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Cerezo Ōsaka
0x87c340…889a
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfb2380…fa88
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x699392…76a7
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xbf161f…ec44
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)
0x58a32c…7fa2
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
0x339193…6144
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Shimizu S-Pulse
0x434537…a9ae
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka)
0xbd1972…c96f
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)
0xc33d1c…62ae
What moved the line
- May 3Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)↑3pp34→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)↑3pp28→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)↑3pp30→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.