SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 1 min ago

Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Tochigi City FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

39%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

39%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$20

20 contracts

Top contract

47¢

$15 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 41% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 41% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC” vs “Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC

11 contracts$5

Cluster 2

Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Shōnan Bellmāre

9 contracts$15

What moved the line

  • May 3Tochigi City FC16pp5034¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Both Teams to Score8pp5951¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Tochigi City FC (-2.5)5pp3237¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Yokohama FC (-1.5)4pp3337¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5)4pp3337¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.