SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min ago

Smouha SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club - More Markets

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

32%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

32%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$306

20 contracts

Top contract

$306 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 34% (2 days, 2 points)Aggregate: 34% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 2d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets” vs “CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

National Bank of Egypt Club vs. Ismaily SC - More Markets

7 contracts$0

Cluster 2

CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets

6 contracts$0

Cluster 3

Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar - More Markets

3 contracts$0

Cluster 4

CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: C

2 contracts$306

Cluster 5

Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús - More Markets

2 contracts$0

What moved the line

  • May 3Club Libertad (-2.5)5pp116¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3CA Rosario Central (-2.5)4pp1923¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.