SOL price up in next 15 mins
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 19% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
14 contracts
Polymarket
19%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
19 contracts
Top contract
7¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 19¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (19¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (29¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “sol price on may” vs “What price will Solana hit in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
sol price on may
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $82 to 82.9999
KXSOLE-26MAY0817-B82
SOL price on May 3, 2026?: $84 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0317-T83.9999
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $83 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0817-T82.9999
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $86 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0817-T85.9999
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $83 to 83.9999
KXSOLE-26MAY0817-B83
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $91 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0817-T90.9999
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $87 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0817-T86.9999
SOL price on May 3, 2026?: $85 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0317-T84.9999
SOL price on May 3, 2026?: $86 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0317-T85.9999
SOL price on May 3, 2026?: $82 to 82.9999
KXSOLE-26MAY0317-B82
SOL price on May 8, 2026?: $88 or above
KXSOLD-26MAY0817-T87.9999
Cluster 2
What price will Solana hit in 2026
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 320
0xef2804…e92c
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 600
0x488999…85b3
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 300
0xd4f01d…e5e2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↑ 180
0x88ceaf…a52e
Cluster 3
H100 SXM price up in next week
H100 SXM price up in next week?: Price to Beat: 2.28
KXH100W-26MAY08-2.28
Cluster 4
What will Uber Technologies, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Cluster 5
What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call
What will Lyft, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline
KXEARNINGSMENTIONLYFT-26MAY07-OIL
What moved the line
- May 2Price to Beat: 2.28↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 3$84 or above↓17pp55→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3$85 or above↓15pp28→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Price to Beat: 2.28↑13pp40→53¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28↑ 320↑10pp6→16¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.