SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 20 outcomes20 contractsKalshirefreshed 4 min ago

Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5

Leader sits at 93% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

93%

Over 2.5 runs scored

runner-up 85¢leader 93¢

Outcomes

20

winner-take-all

Runner-up

85¢

Over 3.5 runs scored

Spread

8pp

contested

24h volume

$30K

liquid

Closes

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

20 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayOver 2.5 runs scored: 93% (2 days, 2 points)Over 2.5 runs scored: 93% on 2026-05-03Over 3.5 runs scored: 85% (2 days, 2 points)Over 3.5 runs scored: 85% on 2026-05-03Over 4.5 runs scored: 81% (2 days, 2 points)Over 4.5 runs scored: 81% on 2026-05-03
Over 2.5 runs scored93¢Over 3.5 runs scored85¢Over 4.5 runs scored81¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Kansas City vs Seattle

20 contracts$30K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Kansas City vs Seattle Winner?: Seattle

KXMLBGAME-26MAY031610KCSEA-SEA

52¢1pp$14KK

Kansas City vs Seattle Winner?: Kansas City

KXMLBGAME-26MAY031610KCSEA-KC

47¢+1pp$11KK

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-8

52¢+3pp$2KK

Kansas City vs Seattle First Inning Run?: Yes

KXMLBRFI-26MAY031610KCSEA

45¢+1pp$943K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-9

44¢$738K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 6.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-7

65¢+4pp$209K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 12.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-13

15¢$167K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings runs?: Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-5

43¢1pp$148K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings winner?: Seattle wins first 5 innings

KXMLBF5-26MAY031610KCSEA-SEA

40¢±0$145K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 5.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-6

72¢+1pp$129K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 4.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-5

83¢±0$129K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 10.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-11

28¢+5pp$129K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings winner?: Kansas City wins first 5 innings

KXMLBF5-26MAY031610KCSEA-KC

42¢+7pp$42K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 3.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-4

85¢+8pp$16K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 9.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-10

35¢+4pp$7K

Kansas City vs Seattle Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-3

93¢+10pp$7K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-3

66¢+34pp$0K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings runs?: Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-6

29¢+7pp$0K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings runs?: Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-2

80¢+28pp$0K

Kansas City vs Seattle first 5 innings runs?: Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY031610KCSEA-7

20¢+4pp$0K

What moved the line

  • May 3Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings34pp236¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings28pp230¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Over 2.5 runs scored10pp8393¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1Yes9pp3645¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Over 3.5 runs scored8pp7785¢ · Kalshi

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.