Will the runner-up top Song on Apr 21, 2026 be Babydoll
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$44K
16 contracts
Top contract
93¢
$13K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Taylor Swift” vs “Will Michael Jackson”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Swift
Will Taylor Swift be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-TAY
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUN01-TAY
Cluster 2
Will Michael Jackson
Will Michael Jackson be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Michael Jackson
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-MIC
Will Michael Jackson be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs Global chart in May 2026?: Michael Jackson
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTGLOBAL-26JUN01-MIC
Cluster 3
Will Olivia
Will Olivia Rodrigo be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-OLII
Will Olivia Dean be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Olivia Dean
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-OLI
Cluster 4
Will Drake be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Will Drake be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Drake
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-DRA
Cluster 5
Will Morgan Wallen be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 6
Will Noah Kahan be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 7
Will BTS be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Will BTS be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: BTS
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-BTS
Cluster 8
Will Justin Bieber be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 9
Will Sabrina Carpenter be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 10
Will Bruno Mars be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 11
Will Nicki Minaj be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 12
Will Chris Brown be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 13
will babydoll be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
What moved the line
- May 1Taylor Swift↑25pp15→40¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Sabrina Carpenter↓19pp42→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Olivia Rodrigo↓18pp72→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Taylor Swift↑16pp12→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Taylor Swift↑14pp28→42¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.