Stoke City FC vs. Portsmouth FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 11 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
38%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
11 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
1 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino” vs “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xe10577…46f4
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xeb5b2d…0abc
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x07f7a0…ead8
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x69428f…bd63
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
Cluster 2
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: Tochigi City FC
0x203174…cc92
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd68383…5708
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x22beac…2bae
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-1.5)
0x00d353…5196
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-2.5)
0x63f37e…c527
Cluster 3
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
What moved the line
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yokohama FC (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.