Will Boston vs Orlando be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−2pp
16h ago
24h volume
$15K
7 contracts
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
31 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will New York vs” vs “Will Detroit vs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York vs
Will New York vs Cleveland be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: New York vs Cleveland
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-NYKCLE
Will New York vs Toronto be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: New York vs Toronto
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-NYKTOR
Will New York vs Orlando be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: New York vs Orlando
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-NYKORL
Cluster 2
Will Detroit vs
Will Detroit vs New York be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: Detroit vs New York
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-DETNYK
Will Detroit vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: Detroit vs Philadelphia
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-DETPHI
Cluster 3
Will Cleveland vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals
Cluster 4
Will Orlando vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals
Analysis
This probability reflects market estimates that the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic will face each other in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals. At 16%, the market suggests this matchup is possible but less likely than several alternatives. The current price reflects Boston's status as a strong Eastern Conference contender balanced against competition from teams like Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and San Antonio. The main drivers are regular-season performance metrics, playoff seeding strength, and injury status of key players heading into the playoffs. The Eastern Conference Finals matchup will be definitively resolved in May 2026 when the conference playoffs conclude, making regular-season performance and playoff results the primary determining factors between now and then.
- ›Boston's playoff seeding and rotation strength relative to other Eastern Conference teams, particularly against Philadelphia, Miami, and New York
- ›Orlando's offensive efficiency and defensive consistency through the regular season, which would need to rank among Eastern Conference leaders
- ›Head-to-head regular season results and strength of schedule remaining for both teams through the 2025-26 season
- ›Injury developments for key players on Boston and Orlando rosters, which significantly impact playoff matchup probabilities
- ›Oklahoma City's continued dominance in Western Conference markets suggests strong NBA player talent concentration, affecting Eastern Conference competitiveness
What moved the line
- May 1New York vs Cleveland↑14pp11→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Detroit vs Philadelphia↑11pp3→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Detroit vs New York↑9pp11→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 1New York vs Orlando↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Detroit vs New York↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.