SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 6 min agoCloses May 6, 2026 · 2d11pp · 12h

Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū - More Markets

Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 54%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

65%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 54¢leader 65¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

54¢

O/U 2.5

Spread

11pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2026

2 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 61% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 1.5: 61% on 2026-05-03O/U 2.5: 54% (2 days, 2 points)O/U 2.5: 54% on 2026-05-03Both Teams to Score: 54% (2 days, 2 points)Both Teams to Score: 54% on 2026-05-03
O/U 1.561¢O/U 2.554¢Both Teams to Score54¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market is tracking the outcome of a Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū match, with the leading contract pricing a 54% probability for one specific result. The current probability reflects incomplete information about team form, head-to-head records, and injury status as of early May 2026. The main drivers of movement would be confirmed lineups, recent performance trends, and betting activity from informed observers closer to match day. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Lower trading volume and light market participation relative to other featured matchups suggest limited consensus among traders on this particular outcome.

  • Trading volume remains modest at $306-$50 across featured contracts, indicating sparse liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
  • The 54% leader holds a 16-point edge over the 38% runner-up, signaling a meaningful but not overwhelming probability skew
  • Polymarket data shows multiple contracts with 24-hour volumes below $100, reflecting thin interest and higher susceptibility to individual bets moving prices
  • Match outcome depends on verifiable team factors: current league standings, recent head-to-head results, confirmed starting lineups, and injury reports
  • Resolution is binary and deterministic once the match concludes, eliminating ambiguity unlike some prediction markets with settlement disputes

What moved the line

  • May 3FC Ryūkyū (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5)5pp3237¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3FC Ryūkyū (-2.5)4pp3438¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.