Will the temp in New York City be above 52.99° on Apr 23, 2026 at 10pm EDT
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.4M
18 contracts
Closes
Oct 31, 2028
911 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New York
Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: New York Y
KXMLB-26-NYY
Will New York vs Cleveland be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: New York vs Cleveland
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-NYKCLE
Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball American League Championship?: New York Y
KXMLBAL-26-NYY
Will New York vs Toronto be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: New York vs Toronto
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-NYKTOR
Will New York vs Orlando be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals?: New York vs Orlando
KXTEAMSINNBAEF-26-NYKORL
Will New York Y be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: New York Y
KXMLBALEAST-26-NYY
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: New York Y
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-NYY
Will New York G win the Pro Football NFC Championship?: New York G
KXNFLNFCCHAMP-27-NYG
Will New York City win the MLS Cup?: New York City
KXMLSCUP-26-NYC
Cluster 2
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball
Cluster 3
Will San Antonio vs New York be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma City vs New York be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals
Cluster 5
Will Los Angeles L vs New York be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals
Cluster 6
Will Detroit vs New York be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Finals
Cluster 7
Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 1 in May 2026
Cluster 8
Will Bruce Blakeman be the Republican nominee for Governor in New York
Will Bruce Blakeman be the Republican nominee for Governor in New York?: Bruce Blakeman
KXGOVNYNOMR-26-BBLA
Cluster 9
When will New York City owned and operated grocery store open to the public
When will New York City owned and operated grocery store open to the public?: Before Jan 2028
KXNYCGROCERY-28-JAN01
What moved the line
- May 1New York vs Cleveland↑14pp11→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3New York↑9pp27→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Detroit vs New York↑9pp11→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Oklahoma City vs New York↑8pp18→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 1New York↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.