Thespa Gunma vs. Vegalta Sendai - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
40%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
52¢
$0 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma” vs “Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc26872…5101
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma: Thespa Gunma
0x1003b5…e57f
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-1.5)
0xa980d1…29b1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf9c843…8a5a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)
0xc6b29b…917b
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xda0ea1…f5e3
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5)
0xf0472b…99af
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x68f5fb…ba0a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)
0xa5b295…370e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd6d00c…a2e5
Cluster 2
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Tochigi SC (-1.5)
0x97bc06…aeed
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC: Tochigi SC
0x9f9cbf…f2fd
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Tochigi SC (-2.5)
0x638499…2a00
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xd90426…8b0d
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x75a530…9f1f
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x3dd375…cb9a
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Vegalta Sendai (-2.5)
0xe6e3ec…5418
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: Vegalta Sendai (-1.5)
0xc5196f…0618
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x1d1df7…7c61
Vegalta Sendai vs. Tochigi SC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xfec7ef…00d0
What moved the line
- May 3Tochigi SC (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Vegalta Sendai (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Thespa Gunma (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Thespa Gunma↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.