Thespa Gunma vs. Yokohama FC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
33%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$309
20 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
1 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma” vs “FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x68f5fb…ba0a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc26872…5101
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)
0xc6b29b…917b
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma: Thespa Gunma
0x1003b5…e57f
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd6d00c…a2e5
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5)
0xf0472b…99af
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf9c843…8a5a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-1.5)
0xa980d1…29b1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)
0xa5b295…370e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xda0ea1…f5e3
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma: Montedio Yamagata
0x16f4ac…32bb
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma: Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma)
0x278ee2…b2ff
Cluster 2
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos)
0xe986c1…e0f1
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
0xeace31…0b5c
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x2d1ff3…fa68
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: FC Machida Zelvia
0xfadb01…63e0
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5)
0x91f635…61e3
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x370751…ca9a
Cluster 3
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
What moved the line
- May 3Thespa Gunma (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)↑3pp32→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Draw (Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma)↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata↑3pp44→47¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Will Ricky Stenhouse finish in the top 10 at NASCAR Jack Link's 500last 27% · 1d
- What will Oz Pearlman say during White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 14% · 1d
- What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearinglast 14% · 1d
- What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)last 14% · 1d
- What will Jared Isaacman say during Senate Committee on Appropriations - NASA Budget hearinglast 14% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.