SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

36%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

36%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$188

20 contracts

Top contract

28¢

$94 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 32% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 32% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC” vs “Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC

12 contracts$18

Cluster 2

Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC

8 contracts$169

What moved the line

  • May 3Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)10pp2535¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3O/U 4.510pp1626¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)7pp3023¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Qingdao Xihaian FC6pp4248¢ · Polymarket
  • May 2Qingdao Hainiu FC6pp3933¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.