Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
32%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10
20 contracts
Top contract
9¢
$10 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)
0x3c1aa9…576e
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Kawasaki Frontale
0x5d662a…c279
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x5a0c78…7648
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc50831…dfa0
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)
0xe158bd…0a3d
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x635cbd…4f96
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x90099f…118b
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Tōkyō Verdy
0x3d1c1d…ae22
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5)
0x8de3ff…55c6
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Draw (Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy)
0xae4b3d…8744
Cluster 2
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: FC Mito Holly Hock
0x7c2edc…941e
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x0020fd…fde4
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x9a04eb…c058
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock)
0x701ae4…dfa5
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Kashima Antlers
0xda16f5…3b65
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x081084…5e13
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: Kashima Antlers (-2.5)
0x6b096c…3965
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)
0x016905…b20d
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd385a3…17a7
What moved the line
- May 3Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)↓6pp34→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Tōkyō Verdy↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kashima Antlers (-2.5)↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)↓4pp33→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Both Teams to Score↑3pp53→56¢ · Polymarket
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.