SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 23 min ago

Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

32%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

32%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$10

20 contracts

Top contract

$10 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 38% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 38% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy

11 contracts$10

Cluster 2

Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock

9 contracts$0

What moved the line

  • May 3Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5)6pp3428¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Tōkyō Verdy4pp3329¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kashima Antlers (-2.5)4pp3236¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Kawasaki Frontale (-2.5)4pp3329¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Both Teams to Score3pp5356¢ · Polymarket

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 min ago.