Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Leader sits at 50% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Yokohama FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Tochigi City FC
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$33
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that Tochigi City FC has a 41% chance of winning their upcoming match against Yokohama FC. The probability sits well below even odds, suggesting market participants view Yokohama as the more likely winner. Relative team strength, recent form, and head-to-head history typically drive such pricing. The market shows modest activity across related contracts, with limited recent trading volume on the specific outcome, indicating this may be a lower-liquidity matchup. Resolution depends on the match result when these teams play, which would occur on their scheduled fixture date. Movements in this probability would likely follow published team lineups, injury reports, or significant betting flows indicating changing sentiment about either team's prospects.
- ›Yokohama FC's implied 59% win probability or draw probability suggests market perception of superior team quality or form relative to Tochigi City FC
- ›Related over/under market pricing at 65¢ indicates traders expect a relatively low-scoring match, which could favor defensive teams
- ›Trading volume across Tochigi-Yokohama contracts has been zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting limited recent information flow or market attention to this fixture
- ›The 6-percentage-point gap between the leading contract (41%) and runner-up (35%) reflects disagreement on Tochigi's chances, indicating moderate uncertainty
- ›Match outcome depends on actual squad availability, tactical setup, and performance on the scheduled fixture date
What moved the line
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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