Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...
Leader sits at 56% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
June 30
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$17
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by
Analysis
This market estimates a 46% chance that Trump will suspend U.S. entry for additional countries by a specified deadline. The probability reflects trader assessments of whether such an executive action will occur, compared to a 39% probability it will not. Factors driving the current level include Trump's historical use of travel restrictions as a policy tool and the current geopolitical environment. Movement would depend on administration rhetoric, pending legislation, or international incidents that might trigger new restrictions. The main catalyst for resolution is the deadline itself, when the outcome becomes determinable based on official U.S. policy announcements and executive orders issued during the relevant timeframe.
- ›Historical precedent: Trump issued multiple travel restrictions during his previous presidency, establishing a pattern that traders may extrapolate into 2026
- ›Current administration messaging: Public statements or policy documents from Trump or officials explicitly discussing entry suspensions for specific countries would move probabilities
- ›Geopolitical events: Regional conflicts, security incidents, or diplomatic crises could create conditions triggering new restrictions before the deadline
- ›Executive action pace: The rate at which the administration implements immigration and entry policies early in 2026 signals likelihood of additional suspensions
- ›Contractual deadline specificity: The exact end-date of this contract determines whether ongoing restrictions initiated near the deadline count toward resolution
What moved the line
- May 3December 31, 2026↓14pp58→44¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29December 31, 2026↓8pp63→55¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28December 31, 2026↓7pp70→63¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30December 31, 2026↑7pp55→62¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑6pp43→49¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (56% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.