How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
3
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
912 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Analysis
The 44% probability indicates that markets see roughly even odds of Trump having exactly two Attorneys General during his term, with a 27% chance of three and minimal chance of four or more. This reflects uncertainty about potential turnover in the Justice Department leadership position. The main driver of this distribution is whether Trump's initial Attorney General appointment remains stable or faces replacement due to resignation, removal, or other circumstances. Markets are pricing in a meaningful but not dominant probability of at least one transition. The outcome will be determined by the actual number of individuals who serve as Attorney General before Trump's term concludes, with the final resolution dependent on when his presidency ends and any personnel changes that occur during that period.
- ›The base assumption that Trump will appoint at least one Attorney General, with the primary uncertainty being whether that appointment remains in place throughout his term
- ›Historical rates of Attorney General turnover in recent administrations and whether the current political environment suggests higher or lower volatility than baseline
- ›Whether Trump experiences significant controversies or policy disagreements that might prompt or necessitate an Attorney General departure
- ›The outcome's dependence on when Trump's term concludes, as earlier termination would mechanically reduce the number of potential replacements
- ›Market participants' assessment of Trump's typical personnel stability patterns based on observable behavior in previous positions
Recently closed in trump
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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