How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 25%, Polymarket at 26%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
3 contracts
Polymarket
26%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$48
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
957 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
How many people will Trump deport in 2026
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 400-500k
0x5851ba…3443
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 500-600k
0x9cf87b…354c
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 200-300k
0xccb52c…746f
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?: 300-400k
0xfe03ab…6b03
Cluster 2
How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Cluster 3
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that Trump will sign exactly four pieces of legislation into law during April 2026. The 21% aggregate probability reflects a significant disagreement between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing it 18 percentage points higher than Polymarket participants. Legislative output depends on the Republican majority's agenda priorities, procedural speed in Congress, and whether bills face significant opposition requiring compromise. The main drivers of the current probability are the baseline pace of legislative activity under unified Republican control and how contested or streamlined priority bills are. Resolution hinges on official records of bills signed in April 2026, which will be definitively documented by the White House legislative tracking system.
- ›Republican legislative priorities and scheduled floor votes in April 2026
- ›Average pace of bill signings in prior months under current Republican control
- ›Whether major legislation faces filibuster or requires 60-vote Senate consensus
- ›Time spent on procedural matters versus substantive legislative debate
- ›Cross-venue disagreement suggests material uncertainty about April legislative output that historical data alone may not resolve
What moved the line
- Jun 62↑14pp32→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 43↓11pp33→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 44↓7pp10→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1101-1k↑6pp15→21¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4500-600k↑6pp19→25¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
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- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 2d
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 2d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 3d
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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